Is 2026 the Right Time to Buy?
Interest rates, the supply pipeline, safe-haven demand, birth rates and immigration policy — the macro factors shaping the 2026 market, and what each one does and does not tell you.
Read the outlook →The news moves every week. Prices don't.
Every week I meet buyers who have been frozen by a headline. A trade dispute. A rate decision. Someone's uncle who says a crash is coming. The worry is real, but almost none of it changes what a home in Singapore will be worth in ten years.
Prices here are set by slow things. What it costs to borrow. How many households are forming and what they earn. What developers are paying for land. What the housing rules allow. Whether the economy is holding up. Those turn over years. Sentiment turns over a weekend.
This section is where I separate the two, in public, with the numbers attached. Not so you can time the market, which nobody does reliably. So that the next headline costs you five minutes instead of five months.
How I Form A View
Sourced, dated, and open to being wrong.
I start from primary data — URA transactions, HDB resale and MOP figures, MAS rates, SingStat income and household numbers — rather than from someone else's summary of it. Every figure I publish carries where it came from and when it was current.
Then I say what I think it means, and label that clearly as my view. Where I disagree with a widely held reading, I set out the evidence. And every piece ends with the conditions under which I would change my mind, because a view that nothing could falsify is not a view.
It is a slower way to write. It is also the only version I would be comfortable having a client check.
What I Watch
Five forces. Everything else is noise.
When a headline lands, the useful question is which of these it actually changes. Most weeks, the honest answer is none.
Borrowing costs
What a loan costs today, and what it would cost if rates returned to their recent peak. This sets the size of loan you qualify for, so it moves affordability faster than anything else on this list.
Rates & SORA
Supply, on both sides
New launches coming to market, and HDB flats reaching the end of their minimum occupation period. The same household often sits on both sides, which is why the two need reading together.
Launches & MOP flats
The cost of land
What developers pay at state tenders sets the floor under launch prices two to three years out. A mood can reverse overnight; an awarded tender cannot be un-bid.
GLS tenders
The rules
Stamp duties, loan limits, income ceilings, minimum occupation periods and eligibility. Policy is the force that can change in a single announcement, and it cuts both ways.
Housing policy
Who is buying, and with what
Household formation, incomes and holding power. Smaller households mean more homes needed from the same population, and owners who don't need to sell don't sell in a downturn.
Demand & incomes
The wider economy
Growth, employment and inbound investment. Every past decline in Singapore property needed a broken economy or deliberate tightening behind it. This is the frame the other four sit inside.
Growth & jobs
Analysis On This Site
Where the market stands, in detail.
HDB and EC Income Ceiling Changes
What the National Day Rally 2026 revisions change for buyers, who gains, who does not, and the dates the new figures take effect.
Read the analysis →
The Rest Of 2026: What The Market Actually Supports
Absorption of 120%, a record $1,556 psf ppr land bid, the removal of the 15-month wait-out period and a $4,000 psf forecast. Which of the 2026 bull arguments survive a check against the URA, HDB and IRAS releases.
Read the outlook →
Long Island and Long-Term Land Supply
Reclamation off the East Coast, Pulau Tekong and the western islands. What Singapore's long-range land plans mean for where homes get built next.
Read the analysis →From The Research Desk
Longer opinion pieces, published openly.
Written for PropertyInsider.sg, the research platform I founded. Every figure carries its source and date.
A record MOP wave meets a thin launch pipeline
13,480 flats reach the end of their five-year minimum stay this year, against roughly 3,620 new homes launching. The same households usually sit on both sides of that squeeze.
Read on PropertyInsider →
From noise to clarity: 5 forces shaping 2026
Rates near 1.12%, land tenders averaging 5.3 bids a site, and a $1,820 psf ppr record. The long version of the framework above, tested against what the market actually did.
Read on PropertyInsider →
Buy, upgrade or wait?
The life-stage companion piece: which of the three moves fits a first-timer, an upgrader and an investor in this market, and what each one gives up.
Read on PropertyInsider →
The new shape of Singapore housing demand
Land rates up nearly 39% in a year, and the May 2026 EC rewrite — a ten-year stay on land sold from 8 May, no deferred payment, 90% to first-timers. What it changes for upgraders.
Read on PropertyInsider →
Turning A View Into A Decision
None of this tells you what to do next.
Market analysis answers what the market is doing. It cannot tell you whether you should move, because that depends on things no data set knows: how secure your income is, what cash buffer you keep, whether you would pay additional buyer's stamp duty, and how long you expect to hold.
That is a different conversation, and it starts with your figures rather than with a chart. If you want to have it, the first one costs nothing and carries no obligation.
Frequently Asked Questions
The questions I get asked most.
What does the Market Insights section cover?
It carries my professional view on the Singapore property market and on what it costs to own property here. That means interest rates and borrowing costs, the supply pipeline of new launches and MOP flats, housing policy as it changes, and the demand side — household formation, incomes and upgrader flows. Each piece states its sources and the date the figures were current.
Are these opinions or research?
Both, kept apart. The figures come from primary sources such as URA, HDB, MAS and SingStat, or from research I publish on PropertyInsider.sg. The interpretation is mine, and I say so. Where I think a widely held reading is wrong, I explain why and name the evidence that would change my mind.
How often is this updated?
When something material happens rather than on a schedule. Budget statements, National Day Rally housing announcements, quarterly URA and HDB data releases, and cooling-measure changes all trigger an update. Every page carries a visible last-updated date so you can see how current it is.
Do falling interest rates mean property prices will rise?
Not automatically. Cheaper borrowing raises what buyers can afford, and historically transaction volumes have recovered before prices moved. But rates are one of several forces, and a rate that fell quickly can climb back just as quickly. If you are borrowing at today's rates, work out the monthly repayment at three per cent before you commit to anything.
What has actually made Singapore property prices fall in the past?
Three conditions, on the historical record: a credit or banking crisis, a severe recession with job losses, or heavy policy tightening. The 1998 Asian Financial Crisis combined a credit collapse with oversupply. The 2008 crisis froze credit globally. The 2013 to 2017 decline was deliberate policy. Most headlines that worry buyers do not touch any of the three.
Can I use this analysis to time the market?
I would not try. The forces that move prices turn over years, while sentiment turns in a week, and nobody reliably calls the bottom. The more useful question is whether your own position — income stability, cash buffer, holding period and stamp duty exposure — supports a move now. That is what the Asset Progression pillar is for.
The Research Library
Looking for something else?
This site runs on three pillars. Here are the other two.
Is this particular launch worth buying?
Independent analysis of specific new launches, plus the launch pipeline and the land tenders behind it.
Project Reviews →
How do I fund the next home from this one?
The property renewal strategy itself — sale proceeds, borrowing capacity, and the order you do things in.
Asset Progression →
