Geek Out #08
Resale or the new launch nearby: what does the price gap tell you?
Published · Updated · URA caveat records, resales to 10 October 2026
Which one grew faster in price depends on the price gap: how much more per sq ft the new launch costs than the resale condo. When the new launch cost over 60% more, the resale condo’s price grew faster over the next 4 to 6 years about 7 times in 10. That’s from 5,531 past cases with a new launch within 1.5km. Try the chart below for the condo you’re looking at.
What this page found, in four lines
Work out the price gap before you choose. · tap for the rest
- Work out the price gap before you choose. The price gap is how much more per sq ft the new launch costs than the resale condo. When the gap was small, the new launch’s price usually grew faster. When the gap was big, the resale condo’s price usually grew faster.
- The older the leasehold resale, the cheaper it had to be. For a 99-year leasehold resale’s price to grow faster than a 99-year leasehold new launch’s in most cases, the new launch had to cost more per sq ft the older the resale was: over 50% more for a 5-year-old resale and over 80% more for a 25-year-old one.
- For a freehold resale next to a freehold launch, the resale condo’s age didn’t make much difference. For the resale condo’s price to grow faster in most cases, the price gap had to be over 40%, at 5 years old or 25.
- The resale condo’s price did best in a rising market. When the resale market rose strongly, the resale condo’s price usually grew faster than the new launch’s price. When the resale market fell, the new launch’s price usually grew faster.
Look it upThe gapAgeFreeholdLaunch tenureResale marketHow it was measuredQuestions
Look up the price gap for a condo’s age and tenure
For each price gap along the bottom, the curve shows how often the resale condo’s price grew faster than the new launch’s price. The list under the chart shows the price gap at which each zone starts: Consider the new launch, Weigh both and Consider the resale.
Resale condo
New launch
How to use it: choose freehold or 99-year leasehold for the resale condo and for the new launch, set the resale condo’s age, then find your price gap along the bottom of the chart. If your price gap falls in the blue zone, the new launch’s price usually grew faster. In the orange zone, the resale condo’s price usually grew faster. In the grey zone, there was no clear winner.
These zones are based on every year since 1996, and property prices rose in most of those years. When property prices didn’t rise, the new launch’s price usually grew faster, unless the price gap was very big.
Fewer sales records for a 99-year leasehold resale and a freehold launch, so the grey “Weigh both” zone is wider on the chart.
The curve is how often the resale condo’s price grew faster than the new launch’s at each price gap. Above the dashed line, the resale condo’s price usually grew faster. Below it, the new launch’s price usually grew faster. Blue, grey and orange shading are the three zones in the list. The chart covers resale condos 5 to 29 years old. There weren’t enough sales records to include younger or older condos. For executive condos, see “What if the resale is an executive condo?” below.
Want me to run a project through this? Send me the two projects you’re comparing. I’ll work out the price gap from URA’s records and talk you through it.
Ask me on WhatsAppWhat got me thinking about this
Upgraders ask me “resale or new launch?” more than anything else. Everyone has a theory. The corgi prefers data, and treats. So we went through 31 years of sales together.
Does a bigger price gap mean the resale condo’s price grows faster?
Usually, when the price gap is big. The bigger the price gap, the more often the resale condo’s price grew faster than the new launch’s. I compared 362 resale condos with the new launches near them (within 1.5km), 5,531 times.
The bars show how often the resale condo’s price grew faster. When the price gap was small (at most 10%, the top two bars), the resale condo’s price grew faster in only 25% of those cases, so the new launch’s price usually grew faster. When the price gap was big (over 60%, the bottom bar), the resale condo’s price grew faster in 72% of those cases.
The older the leasehold resale, the cheaper it had to be
For a 99-year leasehold resale’s price to grow faster than a 99-year leasehold new launch’s in most cases, the new launch had to cost more per sq ft the older the resale was: over 50% more for a 5-year-old resale and over 80% more for a 25-year-old one.
| Age of the resale condo | Consider the new launch | Weigh both | Consider the resale |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years | under 20% | 20 to 50% | over 50% |
| 10 years | under 30% | 30 to 55% | over 55% |
| 15 years | under 40% | 40 to 65% | over 65% |
| 20 years | under 50% | 50 to 75% | over 75% |
| 25 years | under 60% | 60 to 80% | over 80% |
The table rounds to the nearest 5% and shows every fifth year. For your condo’s exact age, use the chart at the top of the page.
For a freehold resale next to a freehold launch, the resale condo’s age didn’t make much difference
For the resale condo’s price to grow faster in most cases, the price gap had to be over 40%, at 5 years old or 25.
| Age of the resale condo | Consider the new launch | Weigh both | Consider the resale |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 years | under 5% | 5 to 40% | over 40% |
| 10 years | under 5% | 5 to 40% | over 40% |
| 15 years | under 10% | 10 to 40% | over 40% |
| 20 years | under 10% | 10 to 40% | over 40% |
| 25 years | under 15% | 15 to 40% | over 40% |
Does it matter if the launch is freehold or leasehold?
Yes. A freehold launch usually costs more just for being freehold, so the chart at the top of the page asks for the launch’s tenure and uses the right cut-offs.
A freehold resale and a 99-year leasehold launch. Here, the older the freehold resale, the smaller the price gap it needed. A 25-year-old freehold resale’s price usually grew faster than a 99-year leasehold new launch’s once the launch cost more than 15% more per sq ft. A 5-year-old freehold resale needed the launch to cost more than 50% more.
A 99-year leasehold resale and a freehold launch. For a 99-year leasehold resale’s price to grow faster than a freehold new launch’s in most cases, the new launch had to cost over 60% more per sq ft for a 5-year-old resale and over 115% more for a 25-year-old one, more than double. These are the highest figures on the page, because a freehold launch costs more just for being freehold. There were fewer sales records for this, so the grey “Weigh both” zone is wider on the chart.
Does the price gap still matter in a flat or falling market?
Yes. The bigger the price gap, the more often the resale condo’s price grew faster. In a flat or falling market, every figure was lower, as the table shows.
| Price gap | Market rose more than 15% | Market rose less, or fell |
|---|---|---|
| At most 10% | 35% | 15% |
| 10 to 30% | 55% | 24% |
| 30 to 60% | 65% | 45% |
| Over 60% | 78% | 58% |
Market: URA’s price index for private condos and apartments, over the next 4 to 6 years. The bars above combine both columns.
Right now, URA’s figures for the third quarter of 2026 have non-landed private home prices up 1.0% in the quarter: up 0.3% in the Core Central Region (CCR), unchanged in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and up 2.3% in the Outside Central Region (OCR).
Does the resale catch up, or does the new launch come down?
Mostly the resale catches up. In the cases where the resale condo’s price grew faster than the new launch’s, its price per sq ft rose a median 27% over the 4 to 6 years, while the launch’s rose 13%. The launch’s price fell in only 22% of those cases. Part of the reason is in Geek Out #06: a new launch’s premium over the resale next door tends to shrink after it is completed.
What if you sell earlier or later?
The later you sell, the smaller the price gap the resale condo needed for its price to grow faster. For a 10-year-old resale next to a new launch of the same tenure:
| If you sold after | 99-year leasehold: the launch had to cost more than | Freehold: the launch had to cost more than |
|---|---|---|
| 2 to 3 years | 95% more | 80% more |
| 4 to 6 years (the chart) | 55% more | 40% more |
| 7 to 9 years | 50% more | 20% more |
| 10 to 12 years | 40% more | 15% more |
Will these numbers change?
Every rule about property prices is a picture of the past, and the past keeps getting longer. I add new sales as they come in. If you’ve seen another ‘framework’ with different cut-offs, ask two things: how many sales is it built on, and how recent are they?
Is the new launch priced high, or is the resale condo cheap for a reason?
Sales records don’t show why the price gap was wide, but they do show what happened next. For a 99-year leasehold resale next to a 99-year leasehold new launch that cost over about 74% more per sq ft, the resale condo’s price grew faster than the new launch’s about 3 times in 4.
This compares the whole resale condo, using its median price per sq ft, with the new launch. Before you buy, find out why the project is so much cheaper, such as a busy road next to it. Then compare the unit’s price with that median. If the unit’s price is much lower, ask why: the unit may face a wall or have a poor layout.
What if you don’t want to wait for a new launch?
This page doesn’t look at the wait, only at how much each price rose. A new launch buyer pays in stages and waits a few years before moving in or renting it out; a resale buyer can do either straight away. Rent, interest, renovation, stamp duties and agent fees are left out for both. If you’re in the “Weigh both” zone, those are the things to weigh, along with which home suits you to live in.
What if the resale is an executive condo?
If the resale you’re looking at is an EC over 10 years old, note that the chart’s zones are based on private condos, not ECs. Older ECs’ prices grew faster than the new launch’s in 23% of past cases, compared with about 42% for private condos at the same price gap and age. That’s based on 8 EC projects, the only ones with enough sales to compare. ECs under 10 years old had too few cases to show.
How was the price gap measured?
Each case compares one resale condo with one new launch within 1.5km, in the same URA region, for similar-sized units. The launch price isn’t from launch day: it’s the median price per sq ft that buyers paid the developer over two years, while the project was being built. Unit sizes were grouped as under 750 sq ft, 750 to 1,100 sq ft and over 1,100 sq ft. A resale condo is compared with each new launch nearby that was selling at the same time, using the resale condo’s own price from that year. So a resale condo with three launches nearby counts as three cases, one for each launch. I used 1.5km because 1km had fewer cases, and some launches 2km away were in a different neighbourhood. Using 1km or 2km instead gave almost the same blue, grey and orange zones on the chart.
Questions people ask about this
Will a cheaper resale condo catch up with the new launch nearby?
Often, if the price gap is big. In 5,531 past cases with a new launch within 1.5km, when the new launch cost over 60% more per sq ft, the resale condo’s price grew faster over the next 4 to 6 years about 7 times in 10. When it cost at most 10% more, the new launch’s price grew faster about 3 times in 4. Older 99-year leasehold condos needed a bigger price gap. For a freehold resale next to a freehold launch, the resale condo’s age didn’t make much difference.
How do I work out the price gap?
Take the new launch’s psf for units of a similar size: the median psf of its sales so far or, before sales start, the average psf on its price list (not the “from” price). Divide it by the resale condo’s median psf for similar-sized units sold in the last 12 months, and subtract 1. The launch should be within 1.5km and in the same region (CCR, RCR or OCR).
Does it matter if the launch is freehold or leasehold?
Yes. A freehold launch usually costs more just for being freehold, so the chart at the top of the page asks for the launch’s tenure and uses the right cut-offs. For a 15-year-old 99-year leasehold resale’s price to grow faster than the new launch’s in most cases, the new launch had to cost over 65% more per sq ft when it was 99-year leasehold, but over 95% more when it was freehold.
Why compare with a new launch within 1.5km?
I used 1.5km because 1km had fewer cases, and some launches 2km away were in a different neighbourhood. Using 1km or 2km instead gave almost the same blue, grey and orange zones on the chart.
Does this work for executive condos?
If the resale you’re looking at is an EC over 10 years old, note that the chart’s zones are based on private condos, not ECs. Older ECs’ prices grew faster than the new launch’s in 23% of past cases, compared with about 42% for private condos at the same price gap and age. That’s based on 8 EC projects, the only ones with enough sales to compare. ECs under 10 years old had too few cases to show.
What’s the point if no one can predict the market?
The price gap is the part you know today, and it mattered in every market. A small price gap usually favoured the new launch whether the market rose or not. A big price gap favoured the resale condo in a rising market and was still slightly ahead when the market was flat or falling.
Is this a forecast?
No. It shows how often the resale condo’s price grew faster than the new launch’s in past cases like yours, from sales between 1995 and 2026. Even in the orange “Consider the resale” zone, for a 99-year leasehold resale and a 99-year leasehold launch, the new launch’s price still grew faster in about 3 cases in 10.
Tell me which figure and why. If the data shows something different, the page changes and the update log says so.
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How the numbers were worked out
Cases. One case is one resale condo, one new launch, one unit-size group and one year, from 1996 to 2022: 5,531 cases, from 2,782 resale-condo years, 362 resale condos and 403 launches. Each resale condo needed at least 3 resales of similar-sized units that year, and 3 more the year before. It also had to be at least 5 years old, counting from the year it was completed. Executive condos and condos over 29 years old are counted separately and left out of the cut-offs.
The price gap. New launch prices are homes bought from the developer before the project’s completion year. The launch figure is the median price per sq ft of homes of the same size group bought in that year and the year before, based on at least 3 sales so that one or two unusual sales can’t set the figure, in a launch within 1.5km (straight line) and in the same URA region (CCR, RCR or OCR). The price gap is that figure divided by the resale condo’s median of the year before, minus 1. Every case uses two different years of the resale condo’s prices: the year before for the price gap, and the year itself as the starting price for growth. No year is picked out as cheap. Keeping the two apart every time means a year that happened to be unusually cheap can’t make the resale condo look both cheap and fast-growing.
Growing faster. The median price per sq ft of the resale condo’s same-size resales 4 to 6 years later, against the median of every same-size sale in the same launch over those years (by then mostly resales). The resale condo’s price grew faster if its percentage rise was bigger than the new launch’s. Prices only: no rent, interest, renovation, stamp duties or fees.
The zones. For each mix of tenures (freehold or 99-year leasehold resale, freehold or 99-year leasehold launch), a statistical model (a logistic regression) works out how often the resale condo’s price grew faster at each price gap and age. It also lets the effect of the price gap change with age. The cut-offs are worked out from all cases, 1996 to 2022, from rising, flat and falling markets. “Consider the new launch” is where the resale condo’s price grew faster in under 40% of cases, “Consider the resale” where it did in over 60%. Checked against the cases themselves, the resale condo’s price grew faster in each zone in: leasehold resale vs leasehold launch: 27%, 53% and 71% (1,061, 684 and 347 cases); leasehold vs freehold launch: 24%, 53% and 77% (147, 360 and 183 cases); freehold vs leasehold launch: 30%, 50% and 78% (420, 390 and 397 cases); freehold vs freehold launch: 28%, 51% and 76% (356, 618 and 568 cases).
Market groups. For each starting year, I checked how much URA’s price index for private condos and apartments rose over the next 4 to 6 years. Over 15% counts as rising, 0 to 15% as flat to modest, and below 0 as falling. Until 23 October 2026, I measured the market by how much the same resale condos’ prices rose. That made a rising market and a fast-rising resale condo partly the same thing, so I switched to URA’s index, which is measured separately. With URA’s index, the share of cases where the resale condo’s price grew faster came out almost the same: 60%, 35% and 31% (58%, 36% and 29% before).
Limits. The records only include homes that were bought and later resold, so condos whose homes rarely change hands have fewer cases in the data. Cases that share a resale condo and year aren’t independent of each other. Size groups stand in for bedroom types. Locations are straight-line distances between project addresses.
Update log
- 24 October 2026 — The market is now measured with URA’s price index for private condos and apartments, not the resale condos’ own prices, so the result isn’t partly built in. The figures came out almost the same. Added a table of the price gap by market, a question on what the page is for if no one can predict the market, and plainer wording for the freehold and leasehold launch comparisons. The chart now says its zones lean on years when property prices rose. The section on selling earlier or later now gives the price gap at which the resale condo’s price grew faster in most cases, as a table. Added how older executive condos compared with the chart. Plainer wording on very wide price gaps, the wait for a new launch and how the price gap was measured. The table on selling earlier or later now has a freehold column, and the method section is in plainer words.
- 23 October 2026 — The findings and the opening answer now start from the price gap and say what it is. The age and freehold findings now give the price gap at which the resale condo’s price grew faster in most cases, the same cut-offs as the tables and the chart at the top of the page. A small gap now means the new launch cost at most 10% more everywhere on the page. Market figures updated to URA’s final figures for the third quarter of 2026. Plainer instructions for the chart, and plainer labels on the bar chart.
- 22 October 2026 — Added a section on how the cut-offs change with the market. Plainer wording throughout, saying what each price grew faster than.
- 20 October 2026 — Added resales to 10 October 2026: 5,531 cases (was 5,364). With a big gap, the resale condo’s price now grew faster about 7 times in 10 (was about 3 in 4). The page now says which one grew faster, the resale condo or the new launch, and has a line on how to use the chart. The 1km and 2km checks were run again on the new data.
- 19 October 2026 — Each resale condo is now compared with one new launch at a time, the way buyers usually compare, and the cut-offs are set separately for freehold and leasehold launches. Comparing with one launch sorted the past cases at least as well as pooling several launches together, with more cases. Plainer wording throughout. Renovation is no longer added to the resale price.
- 18 October 2026 — Published, with URA caveat records from January 1995 to October 2026, as a soft launch.
Where the numbers come from
- Resale and launch prices, 1995 to 2026: URA caveat records, January 1995 to October 2026, from a property portal’s historical archive. Each record pairs a home’s purchase with its later sale; only homes that were resold are included.
- The market, 1995 to 2026: URA’s private residential property price index for non-landed homes (2009 Q1 = 100), quarterly, from data.gov.sg.
- Market now: URA, Release of 3rd Quarter 2026 real estate statistics (23 October 2026).
- Project locations, completion years and tenure: my project data, with locations from OneMap (Singapore Land Authority) and online maps, each checked against the project’s URA street and postal district.
- URA regions: URA’s Core Central Region (CCR), Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR), as used in its property price statistics.
More from Geek Out: New launches cost more than the resale next door. How much more, and what happens to that premium after completion?
Before you act on any of this. These are my own calculations from URA caveat records, January 1995 to October 2026. They compare price changes only, not rent, interest, layouts, facilities or which home suits you. How past resale condos did against the launches nearby doesn’t tell you what any home will sell for later, and none of this is financial advice. Prepared by Jamus Lee (CEA R065771E, ERA Realty Network Pte Ltd).
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