Geek Out #06

New launches cost more than the resale next door. How much more, and what happens to that premium after completion?

Published 3 October 2026 · Updated 4 October 2026 · URA records to September 2026

About 31% more per sq ft. That’s the median for new launches since late 2021, compared with similar-sized resale condos nearby, up to 10 years old. What happens to that premium as the condo gets older? In past launches, it was higher ten years after completion than when the homes were first sold.

How much more do new launches cost than resale nearby?

Here’s how I measured it.

• Which launches: every leasehold launch since November 2021 that sold at least 20 homes in its first month. 56 had enough nearby sales to compare.
• Which homes: every home sold in the launch month.
• Compared with: resale homes within 20% of the same size, in condos up to 10 years old, sold within 1.5km in the 12 months before the launch.
• If too few sales: where fewer than 30 similar-sized resale homes sold within 1.5km, homes up to 2km away are added to the comparison. That happened for about 7 in 10 homes.

Median launch: line the launches up from smallest premium to biggest, and it’s the one in the middle. Half of launches fell between: a quarter had a smaller premium than this range, and a quarter a bigger one. The regions are URA’s market segments. For how URA draws the three regions, see What separates the OCR, RCR and CCR.

Does it matter how old the resale next door is?

A lot. Here are the same launches compared with resale condos of different ages within 2km, still within 20% of the same size:

So “new launches cost 10% to 30% more” and “new launches cost almost double the old condo next door” can both be true. It depends on which neighbour you compare with. On this page, ‘resale nearby’ means resale condos up to 10 years old. The ten-year section uses a different comparison, described at the start of that section.

How can I tell if a launch’s premium is high or low?

Half of all launches since late 2021 were priced 20% to 40% above similar-sized resale homes up to 10 years old nearby. So if those homes resell at $2,000 psf (for example), half of all launches were priced between about $2,390 and $2,800 psf.

Post-harmonisation launches had premiums in the same 20% to 40% range. They had about the same premium over resale nearby as pre-harmonisation launches (see below).

If a launch is priced above that range, its premium is among the biggest since late 2021. If it’s below, its premium is among the smallest.

Did launches with a bigger premium sell more slowly?

I split the 56 launches into three groups by the size of their premium, and checked what share of each launch’s homes sold in its launch month:

On average, the three groups sold 62%, 55% and 64%. Within every group, some launches sold less than a fifth of their homes and others sold almost all of them. Launches with bigger premiums didn’t sell more slowly.

A launch selling out tells you how many buyers accepted the price that day. It doesn’t tell you what happens to the premium after completion. The next section checks that.

Total homes per launch come from the developer figures in my project data, not from URA.

What happens to the premium five and ten years after completion?

This needs launches completed at least ten years ago, so this section looks at earlier launches: leasehold condos completed between 2000 and 2016.

I took the condos within 2km of each project at launch, and compared the project with those same condos at three moments. I did this twice: once with the younger condos nearby (up to 10 years old at launch), and once with the older ones (11 years old or more at launch).

Each time, the project’s homes are compared with similar-sized homes resold that same year in the same condos nearby.

Younger condos: up to 10 years old when the project launched. Older condos: 11 years old or more when the project launched.

Ten years after completion, the premium was higher than when the homes were first sold: about 26% over the older condos nearby, up from 21%, and about 10% over the condos that were up to 10 years old when the project launched, up from 8%.

These are medians across many projects (averages tell the same story). Individual projects varied widely: some ended further above their neighbours, some closer, and some below. The figures describe what usually happened, not what will happen to any one project.

Why only 8% at launch, against the younger condos? In those earlier launches, premiums moved a lot with the market: about 26% above younger condos nearby for launches in 2004 to 2009, and about 8% for launches in 2010 to 2015, when most of the earlier projects in this section launched. These figures are separate from the 31% at the top of the page, which comes from today’s launches and the homes sold in each launch month. These earlier launches are measured from the year their homes were bought, in a different market. So the 8% here and the 31% at the top of the page can’t be compared directly. What this section shows is how the premium changed after completion, not how big it is today.

Projects with the biggest premium at launch were still the furthest above their neighbours ten years after completion: about 20% above, from about 25% at launch. Projects with the smallest premium went from slightly below their neighbours to about 4% above. So the difference between the two groups went from about 30 percentage points at launch to about 16 ten years later. Part of that is because some launch figures were pushed up or down: the only condo nearby to compare with sold for much less or much more than others in its area, which made the premium look bigger or smaller than it really was.

A bigger premium means you paid more over the condos nearby. It doesn’t tell you whether the project itself is better or worse. So a big premium isn’t a warning sign on its own, and a small one isn’t a bargain on its own. It’s one thing to weigh alongside location, layout and the total price.

These figures come from URA caveat records going back to 1995, from a property portal’s historical archive, not from URA’s own transaction search, which only goes back five years. They cover only homes that were resold, because a home that was never resold has no resale price. They come from launches completed between 2000 and 2016, a different market from today’s. They show what happened to those launches, not what will happen to any launch today.

How much of the premium is the lease?

The lease can’t be priced on its own: a new launch’s price covers its longer lease and its new building and facilities together. What the data does show is how the premium changes with the age of the condos around it. A launch costs about 24% more than condos up to five years old nearby, and about 88% more than condos over 20 years old (the table above). Older condos cost less because they have less lease left, more wear and tear, and older facilities and layouts.

Does floor-area harmonisation make new launch psf look higher?

On paper, yes. In 2023 URA, SLA, BCA and SCDF harmonised how they define floor area, so spaces like air-con ledges and some voids no longer count in a home’s official size. Launches built under these rules are called post-harmonisation; older homes are pre-harmonisation. The rules cover land sale sites put up for tender from 1 September 2022 and private sites whose development application went in from 1 June 2023. So a home built under the new rules has a smaller official size than an identical layout built under the old rules. Since psf is the price divided by the size, the same price gives a higher psf.

For example: under the old rules, a home measuring 1,000 sq ft with its air-con ledge, sold for $2,000,000, is $2,000 psf. An identical layout built under the new rules might measure 950 sq ft, because the ledge no longer counts. At the same $2,000,000, that’s $2,105 psf. URA doesn’t publish a figure; 5% is for illustration only.

Every resale home in the comparison is pre-harmonisation. So a post-harmonisation launch should show a premium about 5% higher than it really is, even if it cost the same in total.

It didn’t. Post-harmonisation launches had a median premium of 30% over resale nearby (28 launches, half of them between 17% and 39%), against 32% for pre-harmonisation launches (26 launches, half between 25% and 43%). If the smaller measured size had pushed their psf up, the post-harmonisation launches would show a bigger premium. They don’t. For 2 launches, I couldn’t confirm which rules they were built under, so they’re left out of this comparison.

One caution: post-harmonisation launches mostly came in 2024 to 2026, and pre-harmonisation ones in 2021 to 2023. So this comparison also mixes in market changes between those years. Only 2024 and 2025 had both pre- and post-harmonisation launches, with too few pre-harmonisation ones in those years (5 and 2) to compare.

Why didn’t post-harmonisation launches have a bigger premium? Two possible reasons, and the data can’t tell which. Developers usually price close to what buyers nearby expect to pay per sq ft. If they kept psf in line with that, the same space would cost a little less in total. Or the real difference in measured size may be smaller than the 5% in the example, too small to make a difference. When comparing a post-harmonisation launch with older resale, compare the total price of similar layouts as well as psf, so the smaller measured size doesn’t make the launch look pricier than it is.

Has the premium changed since 2021?

The median launch has stayed around 30% each year. 2026 has 9 launches so far, too few to say premiums are falling.

What does this mean if you’re looking at a specific launch?

Nobody can say what one launch will do later. What you can know before you commit is what you’re paying compared with what’s around it, and whether that’s high or low compared with other launches. Three things to check:

What you’re paying over what’s around it. The launch’s psf against similar-sized homes that resold nearby in the last year.

Whether that’s high or low. Half of launches since late 2021 cost 20% to 40% more than similar-sized resale condos up to 10 years old nearby. A launch above that range is at the high end, and one below it is at the low end.

What the figure is built on. How old the condos nearby are, how many there are, and the size of the home. Older condos nearby, or only one or two condos with sales, make the same price look like a bigger premium. And within the same launch, smaller homes usually have a bigger premium than larger ones, so check the size you’re looking at, not just the launch’s median.

Questions people ask about this

Why do new launch condos cost more than resale condos nearby?

A new launch is a brand-new home with almost all of its lease left and the latest facilities and layouts. Across 56 leasehold launches since late 2021, buyers paid a median 31% more per sq ft than for similar-sized resale homes up to 10 years old nearby, and about 88% more per sq ft than for condos over 20 years old.

What happens to the new launch premium after completion?

In past launches, it was higher ten years after completion than when the homes were first sold. Homes in launches completed between 2000 and 2016 sold for about 26% more per sq ft than older condos nearby ten years after completion, up from 21% when the homes were first sold. They sold for about 10% more than condos that were up to 10 years old when the project launched, up from 8%.

Is the new launch premium higher in the Core Central Region?

Not by much. The median launch since late 2021 cost 32% more per sq ft than resale up to 10 years old nearby in the Core Central Region (CCR), 32% in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and 31% in the Outside Central Region (OCR). The OCR had the widest spread: half of its launches cost between 19% and 45% more.

Does a higher psf after floor-area harmonisation mean a higher price?

Not necessarily. Since URA’s 2023 harmonisation of floor area definitions, spaces like air-con ledges no longer count in a home’s official size, so the same home has a smaller area and a higher psf at the same price. Compare the total price as well as psf. In URA’s records, post-harmonisation launches were about 30% above resale nearby and pre-harmonisation launches about 32%, so the smaller measured size didn’t show up as a bigger premium.

How can I check a specific new launch?

Nobody can say what one launch will do later, but before you commit you can know what you’re paying compared with what’s around it, and whether that’s high or low compared with other launches. Compare its psf with similar-sized resale homes up to 10 years old nearby: half of all launches since late 2021 were 20% to 40% above. Then check what that figure is built on: older condos nearby, only one or two condos with sales, or a smaller home all make the same price look like a bigger premium. I go through this with clients in person. If you’re looking at a launch, message me.

How were these figures worked out?

Launch prices and resale prices come from URA’s private residential transaction records, to September 2026. The ten-year comparison uses URA caveat records back to 1995, from a property portal’s historical archive, which include only homes that were later resold. Every comparison matches homes within 20% of the same size, and every step is listed at the end of this page.

Spot a mistake? Want to challenge a number, or see something missing?

Tell me which figure and why. If the data shows something different, the page changes and the update log says so.

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